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Jun 8, 2023
The chronic retrogression in the F2A Category: Will it ever end?
Visa bulletin for April 2023 was a gloomy affair for the petitioners and prospective beneficiaries in the F2A category. The category retrogressed by ~32 months after remaining current since July 2019. This resulted in a lot of broken hearts for almost 800k (the current case load of USCIS F2A cases is ~400k) people – both petitioners and beneficiaries, anticipating longer wait times and remaining apart for longer. The wait is harder, essentially for those who are away from their spouses & children (which constitute almost 90% of the total family-based immigration visas issued historically). In order to predict the future of the category with a lot of aspirants hoping for the category to revert to “current” in the near future, we need to understand its historical economics – tenants of demand and supply. How did it turn current in the first place? Why did it retrogress? and how is it performing currently? Prior to 2019, the demand for F2As was stagnating and there were seemingly more visas available than visas sought. Thus, the category became current. This can be primarily attributed to a record number of naturalisations in years preceding 2019, (esp. 2018 with 850k+ completions of N400s) and thus F2A petitioners changing their petitions’ status to IR. It is pertinent to mention that on an average more than 90% of family-based preference visas are of such nature wherein the beneficiary is out of US and thus visas are issued at foreign service posts, F2A is no different. In contrast, majority of employment-based immigration (~85%+) is through adjustment of status. COVID-19 induced lockdowns were genuinely catastrophic for the immigration agencies with substantial increase in backlogs and case load through which they are still recovering. The majority of backlog can be attributed to delays in scheduling interviews at foreign service posts due to COVID-19 induced lockdowns. This led to a lot of family-based immigration visas being unused. The COVID-19 induced lockdowns resulted in a very limited family sponsored immigration visas issued for 3 fiscal years because of the reasons stipulated above. As per estimates, a whopping 47% of family-based visas accrued in FY20-22 were lost to employment-based immigration. F2A bled the most. From FY18-22 ~140k F2A visas have been lost to either other family preference categories or employment-based categories. This resulted in the retrogression of April 2023. While employment-based immigrants became beneficiaries of the COVID-19 induced excess supply of visas at the cost of family-based immigrants, they have historically suffered due to massive waiting times. Despite this, it is not unfounded to assume that USCIS has been prioritising them over prospective family-based immigrants. For example, premium processing was specifically introduced for I-140 and other employment-based immigration forms which might have stemmed from the well intention of using as many employment-based immigration visas available as possible. Sadly, with no fault of USCIS, this has come at a cost of family-based immigration, esp. the F2A category. In the current scenario, 60,744 immigrant visas have already been issued in the F2A category as on Apr-23 (out of the 87,934 annual limit) and with a caseload of 380k+ F2A petitioners, it seems retrogression is there to stay. With the latest visa bulletin out, the final action date is expected to be retrogressed even further next month. Major movement, if any, might only be seen once FY24 begins in Oct-23. In 2019, when the category went current, the caseload of F2A was only ~180k, it has more than doubled contemporarily. Thus, the chances of the category going current again seem bleak for another 2-3 fiscal years at least. Unless of course, concrete steps are taken by the white house to recapture the unused visas and reduce processing times as proposed in the Jumpstart Our Legal Immigration System Bill (not passed in the congress). Or an unpredictable event like the Dignity Bill is passed in the congress unopposed, even then with the case backlog that USCIS has, it’ll take years for the contemporary F2A applicants to re-unite with their loved ones. With the upcoming election year, set of headwinds on the US economy and the impending economic recession, immigration might not be the highest priorities for the incumbent president, I mean reaching the debt ceiling deal was an uphill task. We truly live in extraordinary times. To all those F2A petitioners & beneficiaries waiting (including me).. All the best & stay strong! #F2A #Retrogression #USCIS
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