Weighted H-1B Lottery Simulator
Summary
USCIS is currently working to finalize the proposed 'Weighted Selection' rule in time for the FY 2027 H-1B lottery (starting in March 2026). Currently, it's expected that the final rule will be published by or before late February 2026. While some experts anticipate the rule will be litigated against, there is a high probability that the rule will be in effect for the lottery—leaving HR and global mobility teams only a few months to prepare for the change.
Why it matters
The rule presents a completely new reality for companies. Gone will be the days of randomized selection. In its place, there will be real strategy involved in increasing selection odds—but that strategy will involve companies considering significant changes to their sponsorship policies and current best practices.
Timing matters
In order to execute on those changes in time for the FY 2027 H-1B cap registration, HR and global mobility teams will need to start now.
How the weighted lottery changes the process
Pre-Registration: Employers determine the SOC code, work location, and corresponding prevailing wage level (I–IV) under the OEWS system based on the proffered wage they intend to pay each applicant. If multiple worksites or pay ranges exist, the employer must choose the lowest corresponding wage level.
Registration: The new online registration form will include a checkbox or dropdown for wage level and certification of a bona fide job offer. No proof is uploaded.
Selection: Under the rule, each unique beneficiary is entered once, but the entry is counted more than once based on the prevailing wage level: Level I = 1 entry, Level II = 2, Level III = 3, Level IV = 4. If multiple employers register the same person, USCIS uses the lowest wage level submitted to calculate entries.
Submission & Adjudication: When filing a petition for a selected applicant, employers must submit an LCA showing the same SOC, wage, and location as in registration. USCIS verifies the wage still meets or exceeds the selected level. Lowering the wage level via an amendment or extension filed later can lead to denial or revocation.
Simulate your selection odds under the proposed weighted H-1B lottery system. Enter your applications by wage level and select a scenario to see your expected outcomes.
Registrations submitted:
Select a scenario:
Baseline - Registration Distribution
Your odds:
Weighted lottery
Background context: The proposed weighted H-1B lottery system assigns different weights to applications based on their prevailing wage level:
- Level I = 1 entry (counted once)
- Level II = 2 entries (counted twice)
- Level III = 3 entries (counted three times)
- Level IV = 4 entries (counted four times)
Wage levels: Prevailing wage levels are determined by the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) system based on the SOC code, work location, and offered wage. Higher wage levels generally correspond to more experienced positions with higher salaries.
Guide section
All scenarios use WEIGHTED lottery logic: Higher wage levels get better odds through multiple weighted entries (Level I = 1×, Level II = 2×, Level III = 3×, Level IV = 4×).
Registration distribution: All scenarios use the same distribution across wage levels: Level I = 40%, Level II = 42%, Level III = 11%, Level IV = 7%.
Baseline (343,981 registrations): No change in total registrations from FY 2026 levels. This represents the expected pool size if registration patterns remain similar to last year.
15% Drop (292,384 registrations): Simulates a moderate decrease in total registrations, potentially due to economic conditions or policy uncertainty.
30% Drop (240,787 registrations): Simulates a significant decrease in total registrations, reflecting a more cautious market response.
50% Drop (171,991 registrations): Simulates a dramatic decrease in total registrations, potentially due to major policy changes like the proposed $100k fee or other significant market shifts.
Custom Scenario: Enable the custom scenario checkbox to set any total registration count from 1 to 470,000 using the slider. The wage level distribution (40% Level I, 42% Level II, 11% Level III, 7% Level IV) remains constant while you adjust the total pool size.
Lawfully Intelligence
This simulator is based on analysis from Lawfully Intelligence, our premium newsletter providing weekly insights on immigration processing trends, policy changes, and data-driven analysis.
Want to run custom simulations using your portfolio data or need help analyzing your specific situation? Contact us at finnreynolds@lawfully.com
