any any
Jun 8, 2023
The chronic retrogression in the F2A Category: Will it ever end?
Visa bulletin for April 2023 was a gloomy affair for the petitioners and prospective beneficiaries in the F2A category. The category retrogressed by ~32 months after remaining current since July 2019. This resulted in a lot of broken hearts for almost 800k (the current case load of USCIS F2A cases is ~400k) people – both petitioners and beneficiaries, anticipating longer wait times and remaining apart for longer. The wait is harder, essentially for those who are away from their spouses & children (which constitute almost 90% of the total family-based immigration visas issued historically).
In order to predict the future of the category with a lot of aspirants hoping for the category to revert to “current” in the near future, we need to understand its historical economics – tenants of demand and supply. How did it turn current in the first place? Why did it retrogress? and how is it performing currently?
Prior to 2019, the demand for F2As was stagnating and there were seemingly more visas available than visas sought. Thus, the category became current. This can be primarily attributed to a record number of naturalisations in years preceding 2019, (esp. 2018 with 850k+ completions of N400s) and thus F2A petitioners changing their petitions’ status to IR.
It is pertinent to mention that on an average more than 90% of family-based preference visas are of such nature wherein the beneficiary is out of US and thus visas are issued at foreign service posts, F2A is no different. In contrast, majority of employment-based immigration (~85%+) is through adjustment of status. COVID-19 induced lockdowns were genuinely catastrophic for the immigration agencies with substantial increase in backlogs and case load through which they are still recovering. The majority of backlog can be attributed to delays in scheduling interviews at foreign service posts due to COVID-19 induced lockdowns. This led to a lot of family-based immigration visas being unused.
The COVID-19 induced lockdowns resulted in a very limited family sponsored immigration visas issued for 3 fiscal years because of the reasons stipulated above. As per estimates, a whopping 47% of family-based visas accrued in FY20-22 were lost to employment-based immigration. F2A bled the most. From FY18-22 ~140k F2A visas have been lost to either other family preference categories or employment-based categories. This resulted in the retrogression of April 2023.
While employment-based immigrants became beneficiaries of the COVID-19 induced excess supply of visas at the cost of family-based immigrants, they have historically suffered due to massive waiting times. Despite this, it is not unfounded to assume that USCIS has been prioritising them over prospective family-based immigrants. For example, premium processing was specifically introduced for I-140 and other employment-based immigration forms which might have stemmed from the well intention of using as many employment-based immigration visas available as possible. Sadly, with no fault of USCIS, this has come at a cost of family-based immigration, esp. the F2A category.
In the current scenario, 60,744 immigrant visas have already been issued in the F2A category as on Apr-23 (out of the 87,934 annual limit) and with a caseload of 380k+ F2A petitioners, it seems retrogression is there to stay. With the latest visa bulletin out, the final action date is expected to be retrogressed even further next month. Major movement, if any, might only be seen once FY24 begins in Oct-23. In 2019, when the category went current, the caseload of F2A was only ~180k, it has more than doubled contemporarily. Thus, the chances of the category going current again seem bleak for another 2-3 fiscal years at least.
Unless of course, concrete steps are taken by the white house to recapture the unused visas and reduce processing times as proposed in the Jumpstart Our Legal Immigration System Bill (not passed in the congress). Or an unpredictable event like the Dignity Bill is passed in the congress unopposed, even then with the case backlog that USCIS has, it’ll take years for the contemporary F2A applicants to re-unite with their loved ones. With the upcoming election year, set of headwinds on the US economy and the impending economic recession, immigration might not be the highest priorities for the incumbent president, I mean reaching the debt ceiling deal was an uphill task. We truly live in extraordinary times. To all those F2A petitioners & beneficiaries waiting (including me).. All the best & stay strong!
#F2A #Retrogression #USCIS
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Sweet VistaJun 9, 2023
I feel there will be a major movement if not current in October 2023
K MJun 11, 2023
Thanks for all the info!
Henry PoJun 12, 2023
thanks for the insight. It is very much the same as my conclusion based on recent visa bulletin announcement. I wonder where you got the number?
Googo BatherJun 13, 2023
@any any Any predictions when F2A priority date may reach to July 2021? Is there a hope that it will make a big jump forward in October this year ?
Googo BatherJun 13, 2023
one thing I wonder is why they have still kept the F2A filing action date current if they already have such a high demand and enough pending applications to be able to utilize next fiscal year visa numbers ? what I learned is that filing action date is what might become final action date in next 8-12 months or so.
Henry PoJun 14, 2023
@Googo Bather there will be a movement in October but don't expect it to big or a jump. Furthermore, with retrogression next month, October's PD is likely going to be before Sept, 2020, not after.
Practically speaking your PD won't be current until mid 2025 sadly.
Googo BatherJun 14, 2023
@Henry Po - There were total ~400K DQ applicants eligible and waiting for interview at NVC in February when F2A was current. My guess is out of 400K, atleast 50% would be immediate relatives of US citizens so in family preference total applicants pending is probably ~200K. I assume atleast 50% in family preference would be F2A applicants so total F2A applicants waiting for interviews outside USA is probably 100K plus let’s say 20k are doing adjustments of status in the US so total F2A application which may be pending could be 120,000. Does it make sense?
Henry PoJun 14, 2023
Honestly, I don't know. 50% of DQ cases are IR seems too high because they have no backlog, which means they can get an interview very soon and hence the pending cases there should not be as high.
It also does not matter if one is doing F2A via CP or AOS, they are counted the same way.
Further, you have to count those cases DQ later while PD is very early, aka USCIS screw them.
Henry PoJun 14, 2023
it is worth pointing out that your number of 50% 400k DQ in NVC is F2A is very different from 380k in the OP. I'm trying to figure out where do we derive that 380 number
Diana pJun 15, 2023
so even if we have th interview for change of status this year , we will have to wait until a visa gets available ? my application date was April 2022
Arjun poudelJun 16, 2023
@henry po @googo bather , what documents are required to bring at the interview. As I have heard we have to upload most recent tax file but I have uploaded my tax return of 2022 from my petitioner and joint sponsor. if my interview gets schedeuled after one year, willI have to submit the most recent tax return or what as it is already uploaded at CEAC. WillI have to bring I-864 form and supporting financial documents at interview?
Will i have to show the relationship between applicant and joint sponsor when the counselor officer takes interview?
And , how likely the F2A category remain retrogressed?
j lJun 17, 2023
will this backlog affect F2A AOS category whose i 130 got approved recently?
