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Visa Bulletin Prediction.
Hello everyone, Posting after a long time, I’ve been getting constant emails to do a prediction post so I’m doing it now. My model which was able to predict the date previously does not work anymore as the historical data has changed i.e travel ban and unban which might occur so it’s really hard to predict.. Below is an assumption and an educated guess, please feel free to let me know if I’m wrong or you disagree. I’m currently guessing that around 6500 to 8000 visas have been used at max, there should be roughly around 2000 to 3500 visas still left this year. Let’s take the middle number and say around 2800 visas are available. I think the FAD will advance and reach the end of April to early May by Sepetember if nothing changes and USCIS/DHS still pause the visas from the banned countries as a federal judge has ruled it to be unconstitutional but the case will definitely go to the appeals court. if the ban is lifted there should be no movement but we should not retrogress in my opinion. There will still be unutilized visas as the pace that USCIS is approving cases is really slow so there will be wastage. Anyways for April and May folks there is a reason to be joyful as even if this prediction does not come to be true, the new fiscal year brings new set of visa number. The challenge accours after June which had a high infux of applicants. Might take a while to get through those cases, if you are eligible to file for i485 around next October you should do that asap so that you can atleast get your EAD. Again this is just a guess, past data cannot be used in calculation as the context has changed over the past few months. Let me know your thoughts.