@Mark White thank you for your insights would you be able to add anything in terms of filing too?

@Stuck in limbo DOF should remain constant until October in my opinion. We should see a spike around Q2 of 2027 like how we saw this year. After the Q3 data of pending cases are released I can give a rough estimate but again the situation is so uncertain that it’s very hard to predict anything.

I think after mid 2022 Eb3 unskilled situation altogether is about to get worse. according to data mid 2022 onwards approximately 45K+ I-140 are pending and most of the applicants comes with at least 1 or 2 dependent. So there will be around 80K+ people will be waiting for GC. anyone who’s priority date is after mid 2022 onwards the waiting time will be longer might be 10-12 years just to finish the process.

@sam young so you think July 22 will be caught with the movement and be current by Q1 in next fecial year ? or we will it take till end of 2027 to be current!

I’m mid April hopefully current in this coming visa bulletin

I am April 5th 2022 PD. My i485j has been approved and I received a FTA1 API code on my i485. Anyone else in similar situation?

I think you have to take in consideration that many people reached their PD and they are still waiting for their green card to be approved. visa bulleting movement doesn’t mean much since the majority of people whose PD are dec 2020 onward are still waiting for an approval. I have been current for about 3 months and I still have not received any communication neither medicals RFE. when you see the poll here, you can tell that many beneficiaries are waiting for about an year since their PD became current. I though that when my date became current I would see the end of this, but there is little approval in the past few months. they are not really touching anybody’s case. I have a group where 60 people are current and pending to this moment, some waiting for 9 months already. This is very upsetting.

@Mark White when do you think June 2022 should be current?

there’s no majority of people from Dec 2020 there aren’t much cases left from 2020, there are considerable amount of case after med 2021

@Mark White you say “The challenge accours after June which had a high infux of applicants.” so is that in June or after June? asking because my PD is June 2nd

I agree your predictions have been right.

@eb3nanny lol not much cases are pending from 2020. 2021 cases are delayed due to the new background checks. if you look at EB3 skilled category, people who became current recently and have filed have got their green cards pretty quick as their cases are electronic , we can expect the same for eb3 OW. New cases should get approvals quicker than people who filed back in 2022 or 2023 in my opinion as their background went through the new system and their cases are electronic and have a valid medical. USCIS does not unfortunately operate in a FIFO basis which can make this process unfair for some.

@AK M22 hopefully by Q2 of 2027. Really hard to predict at this time. If we see a good movement of atleast 30 to 45 days in these two months we can expect a good movement in Q2

@screw BDV 2021 cases are basically pending due to the new FBI background checks and majority of them not being on the electronic filing. USCIS is having hard time assigning these cases to FOs as they have to physically transfer all the case documents. Takes more time and resources due to this. 2021 cases should see a significant clearance as we are towards the end of the year now.

@Mark White I agree I think IOE cases are indeed being worked on at a priority basis compared to the paper filings. Not sure what the logic is on this but that seems to be the trend. Thank you for your analysis this helps us all.

@Mark White Dam that’s crazy. I was under the impression since it only needs to move 3 months for June, it would be this year. now to think it may take nearly a year to move 3 months is crazy. i trust your judgment, so thank you.

@Mark White out of curiosity, what makes you think the VB would reach June by Q2 next year? how do you come up with they prediction. Regards AK

@Mark White You’re right Mark. I’ve seen on Reddit and there are tons of cases got approved within weeks of filling out I-485 since their cases are electronically filled. I feel kinda disappointed that USCIS does not work the way they stated FIFO unfortunately.

@Static Theory if the ban is not lifted, I believe we will reach July 22 upcoming December - January.

@sam young so December 2026?

if the ban is lifted, could we see it retrogress or remain the same? @sam young @Mark White

@Mark White eagerly waiting for the visa bulletin. Hope that your predictions are true this time too!!

@EB3 Other Workers - PD: June 2022 it should not further retrogress.

@Mark White is so right. And i guess that is why I am still waiting… My pd is Nov2021. My case got transferred to LA FO(non local) on 6/10 received by them on 6/23( information gotten only throught emma ). I already have i485j approved in 2023. medical is expired but no updates at all. My cas is MSC(paper based) so i guess its gonna take more time 🙈🙈

@Mark White dont know if i should b asking u this but i have heard LA FO is quite slow however upon researching it, it says for EB non local cases it’s different as the officers have a deadline to review your case.. how true is that? any idea??

@Eb3 other unfortunately from what I have heard is that majority of these paper cases are not being tracked anymore as majority of cases pending are IOE and now the whole system is designed to handle the IOE cases. These paper cases have been assigned to agents/officer along with IOE cases. IOE cases gets tracked, reports and metrics are generated but for MSC cases they are not tracking it anymore. For example if an IOE case is getting delayed or getting stuck, it is reported on a metrics for that field office so the agents/officers try to clear it to avoid escalations. I am hopeful that all the paper based cases do get approved by the end of Sepetember as USCIS does do a housekeeping of the cases every year. By housekeeping I mean they will approve the cases as they need to report the metrics by the year end for paper cases as well.

@Mark White thank you so much for this information

@Mark White What would be your prediction about my PD March 27,2023 when will i get current for DOF seeing recent trends

My PD March 14, 2022. FAD is current. Do you have any idea when my case is going to be approve? @Mark White