could be retrogression

@find eb is the 39 countries ban and 75 pause going to be lifted soon? is that why you think a retrogrssion is possible in the mext bulletins?

@frost bite i dont think it would be lifted any time soon in the near furure, as the gorvement just did a state union and said that was one of their victory, also this only affect whoever doing conselor not AOS, so I think filling would stay the same which June22 and final date would move in May again

FAD for April will be Dec 2021 DOF April will stay the same. May VB probably will remain the same as April. FAD for June will be Feb 2022 DOF for June will be August 2022.

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 I hope you are right! How much of a chance do you think it moves to Dec 2021 next month for FAD?

@frost bite it should be likely so, 70% chance. Last year, it jumped by 3 months from March to April, and the fact that it is a new quarter next month, 1 month advance is not much to ask.

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 what about the possibility of retrogession? what is the chance that happens next month or in the coming months according to your prediction

@frost bite even if they decide to retrogess i see the DOF being retrogessed i dont see much of that happening on the FAD side

@frost bite I don't see them retrogressing the bulletin in the second quarter, maybe not until the third quarter. Plus, I like to guess 3 months into the future, not more than that, as you never know DOS' next move anyway. But remember in 2025 I made a post about a possibility of a retrogression for August as it stated in the bulletin, there was no retrogression last year at all. I think this is just DOS being cautious and they don't want folks to be too hopeful. Again, this is all just my speculation, doesn't mean it will become true, I am not Mark White after all 😂😂.

what do you think when date of filling will be reach september 2022 ?

I see a lot of people talking about being current, but what I don’t really see, or at least don’t feel, is actual approvals. I see many people who are current but still haven’t received any decision on their cases. To me, that’s the worst part. They’re still stuck waiting while the fiscal year keeps moving forward, and these pending cases keep taking up the available visa numbers. Honestly, I just want to see approvals. My case has been current for almost three months and nothing has happened. There are still people from 2020 waiting. In my opinion, we really need to start seeing approvals so this line can finally move.

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 aah I see. Only if we can get Mark White in here for his prediction 😅

@Bill : ) oh really?! I was not aware of that , and I do not think a lot of people are. Why would they move the dates forward but not give approvals?

@frost bite Mark didn’t active since August 2025 hope he comes back

@September 2022 probably August

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 your prediction looks realistic 👍🏻

@sam young I hope so🤞

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 do you know if they approve eb3 unskilled AOS cases without an interview?

@frost bite yes, though it is not as common as it used to be, in fact those cases are much rarer lately, it seems nowadays, some people expects a 2nd interview to be the norm.

@Bill : ) correct, with such a large DOF forward movement across all categories, its gonna get worse. I don’t think USCIS has bandwidth to handle the influx of applications that’s coming. I expect further delays in adjustication of old cases like ours.

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 what would you say the reason that they are moving the visa bulletin dates forward for eb3-unskilled if they haven’t approved cases with earlier priority dates as @Bill : ) said

@frost bite I think it has to be with bad logistics on USCIS part, I saw a post that suggests Kansas City FO is virtually not approving green cards while there are ton of them being current. I remember before retrogression, there were people I talked to in 2022 got their greencard with 2021 PD, even before people with 2020 PD, and some of those people with 2020 PD had to wait all the way until 2024 just because of retrogression. This has happened before retrogression was in place but the fact that we are in a retrogression makes it seem a lot worse just because everyone has been tired of waiting for so long. A lot of time I feel like USCIS approves cases in a LIFO basis which is unfair lol.

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 Thank you for all the insightful information you have provided, also “in a LIFO basis” haha thats funny

I think that for people who have priority data up to May, they are outside of any kind of retrogression, but the second half of 2022 and 2023 will cause the main wave of retrogression with cases taking up to 6 years to be approved.

well early 2022 cases is on track of being 5 years already so it not much different from 6 years

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 the April visa bulletin just came out. No mevement for eb-3 unskilled. forward movemenr every other category. When do you think eb3-unskilled will move forward to December 2021? Maybe next month?

@frost bite Yeah, probably next month it will be forward movement for FAD and DOF will stay the same lol. Either way, they will not advance every month, there are still cases from early 2021 which blows my mind.

@BDV PUBLIC ENEMY #1 if it moves next month, do you think its possible it will move more than 1 month? Why do you think DOF moved but not FAD this month? If people with earlier dates are still waiting, why even move DOF at all? If FAD does not move at all next month or has a retrogession, when do you predict we will see forward movement?