yes it’s all about consular cases.I totally agree it’s really frustrating especially for AOS applicants. why ppl who are already in us needs to wait this long doesn’t make any sense. I have been waiting for 2+ years just file I-485 and work permit but date of filing is still at 2021 which also doesn’t make any sense. at least let people file for AOS. I have reviewed all previous visa bulletin and by far this is the worst retrogression ever happened because visa bulletin was always current in October and I know people who received their GC in less then 2 years. now they are not even letting people file for AOS. if anyone here has information regarding filing date will move in October please comment my pd is July/2022

@G C @sam young I think they could possibly let people file their I-485s in 2025 or final action advance to where it stopped before in June 2022. Otherwise if they only move with less than 3 months per quarter, people in 2022 can only file in 2026 which is significant long and doesn’t make any sense to be that long wait just for filling. EAD would be unnecessary if they proceed like that. My prediction hopefully October 2024: May 2021 January 2025: August 2021, possible letting people file I-485s July 2025: May 2022 April 2025: November 2021 October 2025 would be current This prediction based on making sense the waiting time.

@SC JN if they use as close to 10k a year they could issue 800 cases / 1 month and about 2400 cases / quarterly ( 3 months ) which approximately in May or June 2021. We have around 4500 cases and if they can issue 2400/ 3 months, 2021 could be all issued in 6 months but that is the case if they focus on I-485 pending for Rest of the World only. Remember they also have Consulate and High backlogs country like China, Indian, Philippines, and Mexico.

@Th Ng i agree with you, but you have to know that China/india alot of sponsors they fobt file for them as it takes a really long time for them to have GC, back to the CP cases i believe if we have the number of it we can predict but my opinion is CP is not even that high at all compared to AOS. however i believe a big movement will happen in the next FY, we have to understand that alof ot the number shared by USCIS some of them they already find their way to GC and left the unskilled processing some sponsors drop them etc

@Talkie Tag @SC JN I believe most of us are Rest of the World. I think 2021 people accounts for 50% cases for FY2025, maybe 25% for high backlogs country and 25% for Consulate cases. Yeah Consular Processing is not high but they have lots of dependents, each primary applicant could take 3-4 slots. A big advancement is likely to happen but May 2021 seems to be a realistic advancement for October 2024. If they can make sure everyone gets their GC in those 3 months, the advancement would boost much faster every quarter. For example if they make sure that all May 2021 or before are issued Green card by January 2025. Final Action in January 2025 would advance 4-5 months in around PD September 2021 and April 2025 would be around April-May 2022 and July 2025 would be current. This is my guess, how about you guys?

@G C they just advance 3 months in July, if the CP is the problem they probably advance slower like another 1 month

@G C your point is good but if that’s so the advancement of 3 months now how do you think about it? Woud you wait?

@G C I was also thinking the same. how come the cases decreased without pd being current? maybe people chosed different option and withdraw their case.

@gc don’t you think filing date will move forward? im not saying “current” but at least return back to “sep 2022” where they left because retrogression started after that so technically most applicant with PD 2022 couldn’t file for AOS. also filing date mostly matters for AOS applicants so they can get AP & work authorization. filing date doesn’t effect CP cases. if you review the past visa bulletin even with retrogression filing date was always current or close to current but this is the first time ever filing date was moved way back. if you see visa bulletin from FY2015 there was retrogression were they moved the final action date back to 2011 but each month they made big jumps and then current again. I think they should be quick with PD 2021 because it was all current back then.

@G C @sam young I think they probably make it return to at least June 2022 which is the first month it started to retrogress. The retrogression has been happening for 2 years already and the covid make consulate close probably about 2 years also. That makes sense to prioritize those stuck in those 2 years. Now the third time October I don’t think they gonna let 2022 wait until next October to file I-485, it’s extremely long and harmful for AOS just because this COVID incident

@Talkie Tag @SC JN I remember someone with PD in June 2020 got approved in November 2023, now it’s July 2024 but someone PD August could not get approved. I don’t understand what is going

@G C you just said 2021 be current in 2025 how date filling not advance

@G C how many CP? How CP can be more than AOS, I believe there are only 15% total CP each year get approved

@G C 2 more years is a very long wait we 2021 already waited for 3 years

@SC JN what do you think about this? do you think we get approved in 2025, I don’t understand why we wait for so long time and now what? 2 more years

@G C yeah but each year there is only 15% cases in CP get Approved for EB category, the total EB is 12k included all from EB1-2-3-O-4. If that is too much I don’t even think they can advance 3 months.

@G C is 2024 a shitty year to pause everything?

@Th Ng Where is this data?