It depends how many people apply in October. Then USCIS will make calculation for next bulletin as per visa availability. Jan 2025 might be your time.

I predict sometime between January - March 2025. I am talking dates for filing table on the bulletin. It will take longer for your PD to be in range on final action table.

@Charlie SC Department of state sets DOF on what they expect FAD to be at the end of the FY. so I don't think a 4 months jump is going to happen in DOF before FY26. The backlog is massive and that priority date requires at least 1DEC23 in the bulletin.

also I believe- the way it works is, DOA wil slowly join DOF by the end of FY 25. Apparently, EB2 will move around 4-5 months in 12 months.

@Anto A @CRP FEB 2024 so maybe in October 2025? so frustrating…

@Mr BD @Charlie SC you think as early as Jan 2025?

@H N can you please elaborate on that? how can op file his AOS in April if he needs a 4 months forward movement in DOF? Also, USCIS will have already switched to FAD for filing AOS by that time.

i mean, in this thread I'm seeing people saying early 2025 with conviction, but I have crunched the numbers and in my opinion that's not going to happen.

@Anto A mind sharing your numbers please?

@adam smith my numbers are the USCIS quarterly reports available on their website.

@adam smith there is a new report showing that they have already more than 10k AOS pending in the system, which is almost 1/3 of the allocated ROW visas for this year. and these are only AOS, the consular demand is not counted here. I would be happily surprised if DOF reaches 1SEP23 in this FY25

@Anto A can you share the link?

@adam smith https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data it's the first one in the list

@Anto A thank you for the link! it looks like applicants waiting in line actually declined from May to August. Looks like VB will be moving forward more soon? Maybe I can file in August-September of 2025? what do you say?

@adam smith it may be, if they advance the bulletin aggressively in the last quarter, that's the best case, but you should be prepared to file in fy26.

@Anto A October 2025 is more realistic then?

i don't have the crystal ball, but If I were you I would be mentally prepared to file in fy26. hope for the best, expect the worst. good luck

wait is extremely frustrating