Chat gpt translation: Page 1 of 9 How to try to calculate the date your GC will come out of EB3 Unskilled Page 2 of 9 What is PD - Priority Date • Priority Date of the EB3 Unskilled process is the date your LC Labor Certification was filed, so if USCIS is issuing Greencards for people with a PD before October 8, 2020, it means they will only issue for people with LC filed before this date. Page 3 of 9 Data • Pending I485 waiting for VISA Bulletin (Dec 2023) 44,470 • Pending I140 waiting for VISA Bulletin (Nov 2023) 16,488 Page 4 of 9 Data There are 16,488 I140s for 44,470 I485 processes, which means the average number of people in the EB3-Unskilled process per family is 2.70 people (i.e., couples with or without a child). Only 10,000 EB3-Unskilled can be issued per fiscal year. This number is counted by I485 protocols and not by I140s. If a family is in only one EB3 process and has 5 people, they will count as 5, now if a single person is in the process, they will count as only one. Page 5 of 9 Data So a family of 5 people can "steal" the greencard from 4 other single people. Page 6 of 9 I485 • These i485s are from PD before April 2022, as USCIS stopped receiving i485 protocol processes with PD before September 8, 2022, in February 2023. Those who had the LC approved in time were able to file the I485. And until January 2023, the DOL (Department of Labor) had only managed to approve the LCs of people up to July 2022. Page 7 of 9 Analysis • If by December 8, 2023, there were 44,470 people waiting for EB3 with PD until June 2022, and the Priority date on the VISA BULLETIN at that time was August 8, 2020, it means there are 44,470 people with the priority date between August 2020 and June 2022. There are 22 months between these dates, so for each month the visa bulletin advances, it means that on average 2,021 Greencards were approved for each month it advances. Page 8 of 9 Analysis • If today were December 8, 2023, because we do not have more current data, but in the most OPTIMISTIC scenario, we can deduce that USCIS this year can only make the VISA Bulletin current for people with the PD until about January 2021-March 2021 at most. And from the next fiscal year (Starts in October 2024) June 2021- August 2021, • and the next one (Starts in October 2025) November 2021- January 2022 • and the Next (Starts in October 2026) April 2022- February 2022 • and the Next (Starts in October 2027) September 2022- October 2022

@Matt B e maio de 2021 fica como?

Essa sua ultima analise é para o Final Action ?

@waiting another day Está no pdf, Talvez Outubro deste ano ou no máximo outubro do Ano que vem, Maio de 2021 vai ficar current

@waiting another day Sim

@Matt B u got some good data but I don’t think it will move to March 2021 FAD this FY.VB clearly mentions no further movements.This is some good analysis but I think this prediction is gonna get pushed back by few months.

@Matt B this data is accurate but it will take 2 yrs to reach 2022 because we have 26k consulate cases till nov 2022. after there 46k consulate cases till nov 2023 so will take 5yrs to reach nov 2023.

@GRU Alpha I also think it won't advance much, but until November 2020, there is a large backlog. After that, there are few processes, then in April 2021, there are many applications. After November 2020, I think it will advance very quickly for a few months, at most until April 2021.

@Matt B are Adjustment of Status and Consular Processing having the same processing time? Are you analyzing the processing time/advancing movement based on AOS?

@T N I have no idea haha, USCIS doesn't specify that in the data. But I calculated as if it were both AOS and Consular

@Matt B I think AOS has a bit shorter processing time because they are already in the US but yeah it’s quite accurate if they are both having the same processing time

Queria muito que você estivesse correto, mais não acredito que entrem em 2021 antes do próximo ano fiscal (outubro)

os 44k nao sao i485 e sim aplicantes no total de processos consulares nao sao? contando dependentes

I don't read Spanish well but I think those predictions are quite over optimistic

meu Deus, minha PD é Setembro/21. tem é chão pela frente então.