disagree and wrong

@Aleksey 223 what is your pd ??

@Aleksey 223 please give your logic then! I am just stating truth. Early 2022 have pretty good chance, rest do not have any chance to be current in the next fiscal year. I am here stating all logic and facts. I know its good to think positive but majority of people here need to be realistic.

@Mark White My PD is June 2022, and all further calculations will be up to this date; anything beyond that no longer concerns me. From July 2021 to December 2021, there are 2,354 already filed I-485 applications – there is nothing more to file there. Up to June 2022, 1,148 I-485s have been filed. Up to June 2022, there are 6,625 people with a pending I-140. In total, up to my date, there are 10,127 in the queue. Out of these, 3,502 have already filed I-485. I am not interested in FAD; I made this calculation for AOS under DOF, and according to my forecast, I will be able to file my application by the next fiscal year (October 2027). When I will receive the Green Card is another question – it all depends on NBC and FO.

@Mark White And yes, according to my analytical data and all available information on the internet, the number of dependents is in the range of a 1.5–1.9 ratio.

@Mark White my PD is October 2021. I’ve been waiting for upwards of 4 years. I agree with you 2022 cases are far more than 2021

@Aleksey 223 my PD is April 2022. Do you think I should be able to file by mid next year?

@Aleksey 223 I think your prediction are biased as you are 2022 Pd. I am giving unbiased opinion as I have nothing to gain on lose. Always multiply the approved i485 by 3 to get a ball park number. Some 2021 applicants might not have been able to file for i485 due to audit or payment reason. You need to account them as well. Over the last 3 years USCIS has barely moved the DOF. Right now DOF and FAD are on the same month, I do not anticipate any big gaps between these dates.

@Mark White my report reflects only up to my date, everything beyond is not my business, in 2021 no one has been there for a long time and until June 2022 all audits have passed or are closed, since I myself received an audit in February 2023 and went through it for 8 months

@Mark White As for dependents, I repeat, this coefficient is 1.5-1.9 you can use a coefficient of at least 5 or 10, only USCIS knows how many people are there, and yes, my forecast is +- a month or two

@Aleksey 223 where are you getting the 1.5 multiplication. My model takes into account a 3 x approved I-485. This is a standard to follow. As for 2022 cases, I am telling you, your guys turn if you are before May will come pretty quick as the volume is manageable beyond May to today’s date lies an astronomical amount of cases that USCIS will take decades to complete

@Wating Forever your DOF will be soon. Can be by the end of 2025 or else will for sure be by Q2 of 2026. Before May be happy, after May you’ll need to see how the backlog turns out to be.

@Aleksey 223 my pd is January 6th 2021 and many people that i know are from October November 2020 and i have a friend from September 2021 he did not fil his i485 yet so your calculation is 1000% wrong my friend but that does not mean you not going to fil by mid 2026 you never know except everything from uscis

@r s You yourself know the answer to this question, how many people did not file 1.2.3, well, maximum 10-20, but not 1000

@Mark White the average estimate is 2.5 green cards per one i-140 . The i -485 already included all applicants and dependents (each is filed separately). only the i-140 is filed for the main applicant

@Mark White I understand you you feel offended because you are in 2026 june the reality you going to wait 2 years at least let’s say between October 2026 till april 2027 to be current

@Mark White Last year Phillipines jumped 6 months to Dec from May that is why it didn’t moved a bit. But this year I’m sure it will move until oct 1 in next month

@Mark White nice insights bro. couldn't agree more

Any predictions for OCT 26 2021?

@r s why would I feel offended. My PD is October 2021 and I have already filed for my i485. I have EAD so I am in no hurry. But your calculation is not correct. 2021 cases should wrap up by at most Q3 of 2026. For 2022 DOF it should be current around Q2 2026. People from early 2022 are the most unluck ones so I am trying to help them as there will be significant movement in DOF for those folks. USCIS needs a steady inventory to work on.

@JUNE 2021 thank you. I am just stating out facts on the historical data. Some people here are just getting offended for stating facts. I want it to be current but even if I want it, USCIS will not do it. People need to be realistic.

@Max Bars you should be current by the end of Q3 2026 at max. Could be much sooner.

@Amin Goretz I did not look at that data and even if that is true that should be for at max 700 applicants due to country cap. I do not think it makes much difference. USCIS has a huge backlog that they were trying to clear out especially for the CP

I am open for your insight guys but please just don’t give me speculative answers. Please back them up by data or if you personally know any USCIS information

@Mark White What about DOF?

@Mark White I’d like to hear from you — your calculations: where you get the numbers, how many people filed I-485, how many did not file, why you multiply dependents by three. Please give a detailed answer and not just a brush-off, because right now your words are worth nothing.

@Aleksey 223 I have already explained. 3000 pending i485 for 2022. We use 3x to account for the CP processing, people who have not filed i485, people who have dependents. 3 is the gold standard in my predective theory. I have compiled the data from 2019 and have got this number

@Max Bars you have not filed for i485 yet? Your PD is Oct 2021 right?

sorry @Mark White i was suppose to tag @Aleksey 223

@Mark White I asked for detail, please describe your theory in detail

@Mark White sorry 3.000 waiting what?485-2022?what?

@Mark White Correct

@Aleksey 223 In the EB-3 Other Worker (Rest of World) section, the “Priority Date Year – 2021” column lists the counts for each month of 2021. If you add them up, the total number of still-pending 2021 EB-3 Other Worker (ROW) cases is about 4,500–5,000 (depending on suppressed “D” cells which may represent small numbers but round the total slightly). So, roughly 4.7k EB3–Other Worker ROW applications from 2021 are still pending at USCIS as of May 2025. This means all of those cases are ahead of your April 2022 priority date in the adjustment-of-status queue. And remember — this does not include consular cases abroad, which will add even more.

@Aleksey 223 my good friend @Max Bars is prime example of 2021 case where he has not been able to file for i485. @Aleksey 223 please don’t be biased and post random data without giving evidence. @Max Bars you should be current for DOF by November for sure.

@Mark White @Max Bars @JUNE 2021 @r s @Wating Forever @Amin Goretz @vitaliy 123 @Aleksey 223 can you please let me know when I will be able to file for i485. I am April 2022 from BDV

@Mark White as I wrote above, there are not many people with PD2021 who did not file, I can also add that my friend with PD May 2021 dropped out of the race, there are such cases

@Aleksey 223 please tell me when I can file?

the only true answer we will get is from next month visa bulletin. I personally think DOF for next month visa bulletin will be 22 December 2021 and will gradually pick up its pace each month.

@Mark White 700 quota is not true! I just checked the numbers in 2023 Mexico Received more than 1500 green cards including CP and AOS. This fiscal year Philippines is way above 700 limit.

We can’t rely on previous data since this year it’s gonna be a different administration with different policies! With all the muslim ban going on, they might very well focus on AOS. also state department is cutting staffs all across the world, AOS might get lucky. I truly believe oct 2025 will move atleast 3 Months

Thanks for the quality insight , great job! I enjoyed your post and reading all the comments . Regardless its correct or not! I just have a feeling that it will move three months at least

@happy nugget I agree! @Mark White seems to be a knowledgeable guy but no one responding to me. when will I be current to file i485? I am pd April 2022.

@Sunny shrestha I don't want to swear, but everything is written and explained above, you will be able to be current on DOF by the end of the 2026 financial year or at the beginning of the 2027 financial year, no one can tell you this with accuracy and predict it

@sam young 👍

@Amin Goretz 👏

@Sunny shrestha you will be current to file by Q2. 2026. If you are before May 2022 then your chances are good. Again this is based on my own predective model and it has been accurate in past too as everything is based on data and removes speculation and human emotion from the calculation. If you are after May 2022 then your chances diminish. @Aleksey 223 bro @Sunny shrestha is just asking for insight no need to be rude.

@Amin Goretz past data works. My job is data analytics, it’s used to predict everything and is accurate when done right without prejudice. Hedge funds make billion dollar bets based on past data. until and unless you have superhuman ability to see future, past data are the only way to predict future.

@sam young I still stand by my thesis. USCIS will probably wait to have multi month jump right away. Again 2022 before May have pretty good chance by Q2 2026 and that is when I am expecting a bigger jump.

@Mark White The past data for EB3 unskilled for last 12-15 years was mostly Current.That is why most of us signed this for. This is the biggest retrogression in the history! We are all stuck here in this rut hole which are not beyond our control. In future it might deviate from actual route who knows! But Anyways I really hope it moves forward at rapid speed. Godspeed and good luck to everyone.

@Mark White I have analyzed all the previous eb3 data since 1993-2025 and believe me there is no solid pattern. Each month it’s unpredictable. sometimes it’s current and sometimes it retrograde again Regardless of how many applications are pending.

@Sunny shrestha no one knows. personally my guess will be next year for you

@Mark White Do you think that next VB will move ? How many months?

@jade usa I am expecting a slight progress in both DOF and FAD for October. USCIS is still working on early 2021 cases and a small backlog of 2020 and 2019 cases but those are mostly for CP applicants. If USCIS thinks that the workload is manageable we might see a sudden increase before December but I am pretty sure that USCIS Q2 fiscal quarter will bring a massive jump particularly in DOF for before May 2022 applicants.

@Mark White so anyone before May 2022 will at least be able to file for i485 by next year?

@Mark White thank you for your very details analysis. Why do you expect the move to be in Q2 instead of this October?

@Amin Goretz I think there was significant retrogression back in 2017 as well but yes I agree no such as we have since 2022. I hope this moves as well

@happy nugget what is your pd?

@sam young what do you think will happen in October

@Aleksey 223 привет, какой у тебя pd?

@Mark White Tks for your explanations. Do you think is important stay in the sponsor after GC , even people who work for 3 yrs?

@jade usa You’re welcome! No where in the Green card statue for EB3 it states that you need to work for the sponsor for even 1 day. The contract you signed with BDV or any other agency is not even valid and they cannot prosecute you just because you did not work for the sponsor. USCIS needs to be statisfied that when you applied for the EB3 unskilled your intention was to actually work for the employer in good faith. They do not ask for these stuff in naturalization process. If you have already worked for the employer you are well within your right to leave them but just to be safe work until you get your green card. Leave when you want after it. You paid tens of thousands of dollars to your sponsor agent to work on a very low paying job. You are in a free country, leave when you feel like leaving. Do not get bounded by those irrelevant contracts BDV agents in the app will tell you and scare you to work for the sponsor just because the more you work for the sponsor the more money BDV gets. These company operators will burn in hell

@vitaliy 123 привет июнь 2022, у тебя какой ?

@Aleksey 223 мой пд 29 июля 2021,ао какой спецыальности ты подался?если хочешь больше пообщаться могу дать свой номер или ты оставь свой

@vitaliy 123 @Aleksey 223 Привет, парни. Вы из каких стран?

@Max Max Украина! ты по какой категории и какой твой ПД?

@vitaliy 123 тоже Украина, EB3 OW OCT 26 2021

@Max Max можешь написать или позвонить. шесть ноль пять, восемь четыре ноль, восемь четыре семь три

@Mark White thank you please let me know how I can contact you. I have some question on my status

@Nash A you can contact me at justinmains72@gmail.com