Further retrogression, DOF back to Feb '21 and FAD to Jan '20.

@German Refugee for SKILLED? that’s a retrogression of almost 2 years. are you talking about unskilled?

@blessing Adetokunbo I talk about skilled, that what im in. Thats my prediction. EB3 wasnt current even at the new fy so it has to go down, especially with that amount of PERMs filed each year.

i don't think so it will retrogress

@nina morada there is no other way, there where no visas available at the beginning of the new fy, so now all of a sudden there are. No hate but it either stays the same ir retrogress, everything else is impossible. It hasnt been c since May which means, allone from that time are already 70k people lined up, not even to mention people from last year.

@German Refugee Your point is completely wrong. But I am not going to debate with you. I snapshot this page and lets see in a couple of weeks.

I’m EB3-1 Skilled ROW , No PERM required and I’m already hopeless.

@ciyu chen Im EB3 myself and need it current but once you did your research about pending cases, filed perms each year. Its not about debating, its simple math, not rocketscience. But ill be waiting here for you with open arms.😅😅😅

@German Refugee it will move forward as they are moving the dates mostly on a quarterly basis.Generally the VB retrogress in the summer because less visas available. You are right it's math but I think you are interpreting the math wrong but understandable we don't have the data. but given that the Dec 01 has changed means that they are on par with their projections. hence it hasn't moved forward or backwards. Their other project is the Filing date this is based on the data they have the think they may get to by September. But may not given that they them self don't know how much perm cases will be approved as well as beneficiary. so it's widely assume that the dates will move forward in January but no one knows by how much all depends on how much approval happens in the first quarter. There are other factors to consider.

@hello mark The data is published by the DOL its not a secret when it comes down to PERMs, so when EB3 retrogressed in May then there where still at least 50k PERMs pending from 2022 plus over another 100k from this year, so that is what im talking about. So 150k PERMs compared to 40k visas so even when you take 50k PERMs off because denied or not proceed, whatever, there are still over enough people just waiting for the next 2 fy. And those number are skyrocket since covid slowed down. So unless they rase the cap what theyre not gonna do, there is no movement until Sep. 2025. But again, im gonna be waiting here with a smile on my face in 2 weeks and then you can tell me i was right.🤝🤝🤝

@German Refugee you could be right because it's USCIS and DOS they are unpredictable. They could just release VB with an U for January everyone would be like how sigh. let me ask of that estimated 150k perm how much is for ROW and how much is for India and china. because I don't recalling DOL providing this information. how much is EB-2 ,EB-3 and EB-3 other workers ? this is why I said in my previous response the data isn't provided in terms of these numbers hence why attorneys have FiOA these information. because over the years 75% of perms for just for India because they have the largest demand for GC. hence why DOS already stated that have enough pending application for India in EB-2 and EB-3 for the entire year and more. according to USCIS as of June 2023 they had 12,602 approved employment based petition for ROW awaiting visa availability that number should increase has more perms gotten a proved since then. note that 12,602 doesn't include depends using a multiplier of 2 ,we get 25,204 but again we don't know the number of perms approved with PD before the current FAD. Do you know how much indians with approved employment based EB-3 waiting visa availability as of June 2023 ,133,409 just the main applicants. hence why again understand why you would be interpreting the data how you are but it's wrong because we don't have all the facts to make a proper assessment.

@hello mark We could discuss this for days, you have your opinion and i got mine, thats fine.

The Visa Bulletin is always unpredictable cuz there are too many factors mixed in. Spillovers, Up/Down grades, 7% country cap, DOS strategy… etc. All we know is that DOS and USCIS are applying conservative strategies to release quotas quarterly to avoid back and forth movements. They learned some lessons from the previous chaotic FYs. My personal guess is that there might be small advancement on January VB but retrogression is unlikely, at least on ROW category. Hope Eb3 ROW could advance at least 2 months. lets see.

@German Refugee you are totally wrong. The number of employment based immigration visas available each year is set by law at a minimum of 140.000. You can Google this information.

@ciyu chen I was one of those who bet his life that EB3 would be current in fy'24 and look where we are now.

@Nil Nil EB3 has not 140k visas, who told you that,lol.

@German Refugee I am not sepetating employment based categories like you. There is no data for it. How you you know that DOL certified 150K perm last year. How do you know that it is for EB3. They are planning it to use at least 161.000 visa numbers for FY 2024 for employment based categories.

@Nil Nil There are over 100k perms filed each year, as i mentioned above those numbers are public and not a secret.

@German Refugee I know that but there is no information for each EB categories. DOS announced that they will use at least 161.000 visas for employment based. you can find this information on the USCIS website.

there are 40k for EB3 thats all i care about. They can usr 200k visa its still only 40k for EB3

@German Refugee how do you know this information ? where did you get it ?

@Nil Nil I don't agree with his interpretation of the data but he is right EB-3 with get 46,046 of the 161,000 GC with ROW getting 33,154. and his data of the number of pending perms is in that region but as I stated no one knows how much is for ROW, India china ,mexico and the Philippines. not knowing this makes it very difficult to predict how much the dates may move.

@hello mark Yes i admit i dont how much is for which country but that doesnt makes it less bad. The status quo is bad, very bad propably the worst of the past 10 years and the fact that it became current in October is a alarm signal. Having a month progress quarterly on 24 month backlog still means years of waiting. Of course i take any surprise next bulletin but since April i rather see things bad, makes it less frustrating when it actually happens. The only reason why i didnt gave up is that i worked way too hard for my sponsorship and thank god i only have to go through that once in my life.

I had to look it up, in Oct 2014 was a 3 year backlog but it progressed and became almost current during that year, on the side it moved forward every month multiple month. Now we have no movement since April, it pretty much depends on the next bulletin.

@German Refugee I don’t think EB3 row would jump back to “C” at that time.

@ciyu chen Of course not, it would be possible though but since it didnt moved at all for month. What i meant is that the next bulletin will show where the journey goes. At this point everything is possible,even more retrogression.

@German Refugee I agree with you totally it will continue to be backlog foreseeable future. where I disagree is a if there is going to be a retrogression it will come before summer. which is the typical summer retrogression. The current data by USCIS them self doesn't support that. remember of the 46,046 GC for EB-3 this year they are only allowed to issue 27% for the first quarter hence why unfortunately the hasn't been any movement since October. but I too am skeptical of USCIS data but it the only thing we got. yes the data is there this is a mild retrogression compare to previous years. guys take a look at 2010 and 2011 we had 6&7 year retrogression before. generally EB-3 retrogression are around 3 years on average. so again my disagree isn't if it's bad because I agree it is, I disagree based on the current data they may need to retrogress the dates if needed before summer.

@hello mark Ok i see what you mean, thank you for your thoughts and input.

@German Refugee you can check the latest VB now.

@German Refugee please check the visa bulletin for January.

@Nil Nil @ciyu chen as I had said his theory was right but it was not going to retrogress yet.The data doesn't support that. once all those pending perm with old PD gets file their I-140. Then we will see the retrogression. but he too is glad he was wrong in his prediction. but it's ok , once we get the FiOS data we will better know how bad 2024 will be.

@hello mark I agree with you that tons of perm with old PD is a key factor of retrogression, however there are also a lot of multiple applications on I-140 which may also let the dates advance when cleared out. Another good sign is that EB2 ROW PD have overtaken EB3 ROW, which goes back to normal. Too many downgrades from EB2 was also a key factor of EB3 huge retrogression last year. Good to see that DOS and USCIS are pulling them back on track. Hang in there and you will see the light in the tunnel end.

@ciyu chen I get what your saying about duplicates filing but that is not common to ROW. That is unique to India because their wait time is so long as new opportunities present it self they change employers and file a new I-140. Generally this doesn't happen in ROW also USCIS in their Faq stated that only 5% of their current inventory of pending cases are duplicate filers.They stated that when setting the dates they take that into consideration however we are sure that they aren't aware of the exact number of pending perm data from DOL. recall dol is just at December 2022 for pending perms so any perm approved in December and January will be allowed to file their I-485 along with those that were audited.yes the down grade really did impact EB-3 across the board. just take a look at EB-3, pre-covid it always have a couple years that EB-3 is backlog for a period of time then it gets back to current once the demand decreases. we are in that period of time. also next year probably will have less greencards available. These are all facts of the current situation but once the both agency doesn't waste any greencards this year. The dates will continue gradually move in the forward direction.